Brazil’s Supreme Electoral Court said in a decision on Tuesday that it would reopen an investigation into illegal campaign funds during President Dilma Rousseff’s re-election campaign.

This political blow precedes a ruling by the Federal Accounts Court, known as TCU, which found that Rousseff’s government manipulated its accounts in 2014 to mask a ballooning deficit. While the ruling has no legal bind, it could be used as political ammunition by an increasingly hostile Congress to impeach Rousseff.

President Rousseff denies all wrongdoing in both situations, but the wave of political opinion is increasingly against her and her government. The Rousseff administration has been associated with a weak economy that has recently entered a recession period and several corruption scandals; both political shortcomings have translated to single-digit approval ratings for the president.

Political opposition leaders have called for impeachment hearings amid the decisions. The move to oust Rousseff is certainly gaining traction with business leaders and other powerful interests who have been affected by Brazil’s flagging economy. However, the chances of impeachment depend on whether the Brazilian Democratic Movement, the nation’s largest party and a coalition partner for the Rousseff government, decides to support a change in leadership. Rousseff still possesses many allies within her party and several political friendships beyond. Many political analysts are claiming that move will be unlikely because of the influence Rousseff holds and the absence of a potential replacement.

Consequently, the Supreme Electoral Court decision could escalate the transition of power. If the court were to find irregularities in the election results, that find could invalidate Rousseff’s victory and trigger new polls. With that said, the discrepancies would have to be extremely significant in nature, and the court investigation could take months.

Opposition leaders like Rubens Bueno, a congressman from PPS party, have predicted the end of the Dilma administration. The government’s flagging popularity has definitively impacted its governing abilities. On Wednesday, Rousseff’s government failed to win enough support in Congress to support legislation to rebalance Brazil’s public accounts. Without coalition support, the administration is bound to face more political setbacks.

In order to move past the recent scandals (see: Petrobras), it would be in the interest of Brazil to present a more unified government to foreign nations and investors. Impeaching President Rousseff without a clear successor could prove to more harmful than beneficial. Ultimately, the Rousseff administration must reach across the aisle in order to begin creating actionable solutions.

Any potential political movements will have to take the economy into consideration. Brazil faces its deepest recession in 25 years, and with the Petrobras scandal continuing to impact both domestic and international markets, all eyes are on Brazil and the Rousseff government’s response.

Sources:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/legal-setbacks-buffet-brazilian-president-dilma-rousseff-1444346565

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-34464261

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/08/us-brazil-rousseff-idUSKCN0S124S20151008

Photo Source:

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