This year marks an important point in Argentine history as current President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner reaches the end of her two term limit and the country prepares to vote a new president into office. Nestor Kirchner, husband of Mrs. Kirchner, served as president prior to Mrs. Kirchner’s time in office. This year’s election will end the Kirchner era. As November 22nd approaches, people around the world sit on the edges of their seats as they wait to hear the results from the runoff vote after the vote on October 25th failed to produce a decisive winner. The transition to a new president will have a great impact not only on Argentina domestically, but also on the role Argentina plays in the international realm.

Three presidential candidates held the most influence prior to the October 25th vote. Daniel Scioli was selected by Mrs. Kirchner, to be her successor. Mrs. Kirchner has endorsed him throughout the campaign season during which he has represented the center-left Front for Victory party, also known as the Peronist Party or simply the FPV. He currently serves as the governor of the Buenos Aires province and previously held the position of vice president. Mauricio Macri, Scioli’s challenger, currently serves as the mayor of Buenos Aires. He heads an electoral coalition named Cambiemos, representing the Argentineans who oppose the economic and political policies put in place by Mrs. Kirchner. The third candidate, Sergio Massa, previously served as Mrs. Kirchner’s cabinet chief. However, two years ago he chose to break those ties upon developing differing views regarding what constitutes an effective form of governance. At that time, he started a new party named the Renewal Front that opposes Mrs. Kirchner’s Peronist Party.

Considering Mrs. Kirchner’s approval ratings and endorsement of Scioli combined with Scioli’s intent to uphold many of Mrs. Kirchner’s policies and ideology, many people expected Scioli to easily secure a win on October 25th. However, Scioli and his supporters were shocked when they received the results from the vote on October 25th. Macri won 35.3% of the votes, just 0.4% less than the 35.7% won by Scioli , requiring that a runoff vote be held on November 22nd. Massa won 21% of the vote. Scioli and Macri will be attempting to gain support of those who voted for Massa in October in order to help them secure victory in the November runoff vote.

During their presidencies, the Kirchners put in place many policies that have been highly popular with the Argentinean population. One of the most prominent examples of this is the Universal Child Allowance that was put into effect in 2009. Under this policy, parents who are either unemployed or work in the informal sector can receive 837 Argentine pesos, roughly 88 U.S. dollars, per month for each of their children. Yet, many of these policies have negatively affected the Argentine economy. For example, Nestor Kirchner addressed Argentina’s $100 billion default by restructuring the debt in both 2005 and 2010. Although these efforts did in fact benefit Argentina in many ways, they failed to address $1.3 billion dispute with the 7% of holdout creditors. Argentina will remain unable to engage in capital markets and request external financing until a deal can be struck with the holdouts.

Moreover, this is only one contributor to Argentina’s current dire economic situation. Mrs. Kirchner worsened the economic hardships in 2011 by introducing currency controls and trade restrictions, therefore sparking a sharp decrease in productivity. Inflation, currently around 25%, also presents a serious economic issue. Despite the fact that Argentina’s economy is Latin America’s third-largest, GDP grew a mere 0.5% in 2014. Whoever wins the election will find himself facing the difficult task of having to rebuild and strengthen Argentina’s struggling economy. Such an endeavor will not be easy and will likely require the president to make decisions that will be greatly unpopular with the Argentinean citizens. He will not only have to come to a consensus with the holdouts, but also depreciate the peso and allow for greater amounts of imports and exports. Changes such as these would allow Argentina to begin a transition back to increasing economic competitiveness as well as production.

Macri’s tendency to support a laissez-faire economy means he is more likely to enforce such changes than Scioli. However, even if Macri were to win November’s runoff election, a battle would still lie ahead of him. Only two of 24 governors would support him and his party would represent a minority in both houses of Congress. If he were able to overcome these obstacles, he could enact great change in Argentina. Throughout her time as president, Mrs. Kirchner made many efforts to give herself a power that could not be undermined by other branches of government or by the Argentine public. This is evident in her actions to weaken Congress, the central bank, the official statistics agency, the judiciary, and the press. As president, Macri would work to strengthen them once again, therefore increasing the institutional credibility of the country. Such changes would undoubtedly be looked upon favorably by countries such as the United States, who has suffered from strained relations with Argentina in recent years.

Sources:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/26/world/americas/argentina-presidential-election.html?_r=0

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-34634210

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/26/argentinas-presidential-election-headed-for-second-round-after-no-clear-winner

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/10/argentina-vote-pivotal-presidential-elections-151025051948053.html

http://bakerinstitute.org/the-2015-election-season-in-argentina-seven-key-dates/

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-34580287

http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21676824-and-beginning-saner-economic-policies-perhaps-end-kirchnerismo

http://www.wsj.com/articles/argentine-kingmaker-sergio-massa-spurns-kirchner-ally-in-presidential-runoff-1446078882