On March 7 I had the pleasure of sitting at the head table with Bruce Hoffman, a professor at Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and Director for the university’s Center for Security Studies. As someone who had traveled often for work and specializes in counterterrorism and insurgency (the full list of his accomplishments are listed in the Athenaeum Fortnightly, and worth a look), Professor Hoffman chatted easily with students about their study abroad plans; the night’s topic tied in nicely for a few students in particular who were headed to the Middle East.His talk was decidedly ominous, but informative: apologizing for speaking as a “scaremonger,” Professor Hoffman stressed that the fight against Al Qaeda was far from over. Rather, he fears that “Al Qaeda’s attempt to catch its second breath may have succeeded.”

On one hand, Al Qaeda has been physically weakened on several fronts. The lack of a “safehaven” or geographical stronghold has forced operatives to scatter for survival. The group lost a crucial chance in North Africa during the Arab Spring where, for now, a longing for democracy has trumped violence. Despite the ethical controversy, drones have helped to kill over thirty leaders and over two hundred Al Qaeda fighters. Furthermore, the death of Osama bin Laden has been a huge symbolic blow to the terrorist group. (The talk was especially relevant in early March, merely a day after bin Laden’s son-in-law and spokesperson was captured and brought to the United States.)However, terrorism has continued to survive and evolve; while Al Qaeda’s core may have been weakened, the threat of Al Qaedaism is on a meteoric rise. Al Qaeda’s mentality is providing a dangerous, growing enemy in the war on terror due to its ability to survive, crisscross territories, and inspire action. Despite being physically weakened, Al Qaedaism has spread over 100% in four years. It has expanded far past the Middle East, showing itself in African countries such as Sudan and reaching as far west as Mauritania. A small group in Indonesia claimed to operate as Al Qaeda for a period, although they never actually made contact with the main group or any leaders. On the outskirts of China some Xinjiang separatists have been trained by Al Qaeda operatives, causing many to wonder whether their ideals have bled over into the East as well. This breadth is made possible by relatively simple means: while some members are specially vetted and trained, a mere handful of recruits are sufficient enough to spread the message of Al Qaedaism. This new breadth demonstrates the power—and in this case, the danger—of idealism; although Osama bin Laden is dead and Al Qaeda is scattered, Al Qaedaism lives on and has even managed to spread to other continents.

In order to fight this new enemy the world must constantly be aware of “the danger of complacency.” While other countries made the untimely decision to turn inward and focus on the economy, Al Qaedaism has had the chance to spread and revive the collapsing terrorist group, working not only on their expansion but the appeal of their ideas as well. In order to truly downgrade Al Qaeda as a threat, it is important that Al Qaedaism does not present a solution; in the Arab Spring civic action was able to deliver what Al Qaeda initially promised, but failed to carry through. Syria now looms as the next chapter in Al Qaedaism’s future; the large Islamic population and current uprising may be the beginnings of “the perfect jihadi storm.” In an uncertain future the world’s most important weapon against terrorism is awareness and vigilance, ensuring that Al Qaeda has not truly caught their second breath.