The UK recently announced that they will hold a referendum on June 23rd to decide if they will stay in or depart from the European Union.[1] As the world scuttles to the bleachers to watch the show and place bets, the Catalonian region of Spain was only recently able to elect a Prime Minister and form a functional government. After an election that left no clear majority, and months of tense negotiations, the Catalonian parliament, unable to decide upon a Prime Minister, came within two hours of parliament being dissolved and forcing another round of elections.[2] Finally, Carles Puigdemont, a pro-secessionist Catalonian, was elected.

The 18-month plan for Catalonian independence was struck down by the Spanish Supreme Court in November of last year,[3] but leaders have vowed to continue pursuing the plan regardless. As disorganized as the Catalonian parliament was, the Spanish national elections were just as messy; long dominated by a two-party system, support for the two parties fell from 78% to around 50%, with other parties picking up the difference.[4] No party currently holds enough seats in parliament to secure the Prime Minister position without allying with other parties. The current conservative prime minister turned down an opportunity to attempt such an alliance and secure his position, letting the socialist party take a shot at forming a government,[5] although the current prime minister, unaware that his mike was live, told David Cameron, current Prime Minister of the UK, that he does not expect the socialist party to succeed, meaning Spain will hold new elections in June.[6]

This means Catalonia, in their bid for independence, is facing a fragmented central government. Catalonia is attempting to bait the central government into hasty, chaotic, morally grey action in order to garner international support. A weak national parliament is much more likely to make such a mistake, and under the leadership of radical and active leader Carles Puigdemont could clear the way for Catalonian independence.

[1] http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-35681525

[2] http://fortune.com/2016/01/11/spain-catalonia-secession/

[3] http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34792355

[4] http://fortune.com/2015/12/21/spain-election-results/

[5] http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/22/spanish-prime-minister-rajoy-kings-petition-new-government

[6] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/spain/12165215/Spanish-PM-Rajoy-tells-David-Cameron-he-expects-to-face-new-elections-in-June.html

Hunter Ashburn