The recent attacks in Paris sent shockwaves throughout the Western world. The largest terrorist attack on European soil since the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the incident has resulted in an outpouring of international support and the largest French airstrikes against ISIS yet.

The attacks set off a flurry of arguments aimed at understanding what the attacks indicate about the fight against ISIS. Some argue the attacks signal the continuing rise of a stronger ISIS. Others claim such tactics are evidence of ISIS’s waning power and declining military capabilities. In reality, it is far too early to make any claims with complete certainty; it is still unclear whether or not ISIS was involved in the planning of the attacks or if they were ISIS-inspired. Yet if they were planned by ISIS, there is reason to believe the attacks signal a wane in the group’s power.

The height of ISIS’s geographic expansion was last summer. Since then, the group has lost 25% of its territory, including losses in crucial areas such as the Baiji district in Iraq, Kirkuk, and Ramadi. Just last week, Kurdish fighters recaptured the Sinjar province in Iraq, which has been in ISIS’s control since August 2014. At the same time, Kurdish forces have only drawn closer to ISIS’s capital, Raqqa, in recent months. ISIS’s momentum, once astonishingly high, has been grinding to a halt in recent months.

This should not be taken to mean that the US or other countries are winning the war against ISIS, nor that the hostilities are coming to a close. One of ISIS’s main strengths is power projection. Using momentum and social media to broadcast its victories, the group makes its presence seem enormous and overwhelming. This also explains why ISIS will attempt to claim responsibility for any terrorist attack, even those in which they have no involvement. Yet, its failure to produce military victories has crippled ISIS’s ability to project power and the threat it poses. That is, as ISIS loses power, large, civilian-focused attacks might become an increasingly important component of its strategy. There’s some evidence for that happening already; though the Paris attacks were the first major attack by ISIS on Western soil, major civilian attacks have been carried out by ISIS in Kuwait, Tunisia, and most recently Lebanon. ISIS’s terrorist attacks between July and September 2015 increased almost 40% from the previous 12 months.

Put simply, ISIS’s losses are not equivalent gains for the US or the West. Rather, as ISIS is degraded, the challenge of addressing it becomes increasingly complex. This is not to say the war is hopeless or not worth fighting; US entanglement in the conflict is already incredibly deep. Yet, understanding of how the threat ISIS poses might begin to change alongside the organization’s capabilities is crucial to defeating it. Terrorism may still be a weapon of the weak, but the fight against ISIS is far from over.