On October 12, Project Pengyou: Claremont attended a fireside chat with some of “The Original China Hands” at UC Berkeley. Thomas Gold and John Thompson were among the first American representatives in China after the US and PRC formally established diplomatic relations in 1979. Gold spent a year at Fudan University in Shanghai, became a Chinese language escort-interpreter for the State Department, and currently teaches at the University of California, Berkeley. Thompson served in the Marine Corps in the 1960s, worked at the American Embassy in Beijing from 1979 to 1981, and is currently a member of the National Committee on US-China Relations. The two gentlemen discussed a variety of issues, from the faults of American policy and “the Department of Homeland Insecurity” to Mark Zuckerberg’s influence in China (“Work on your tones, already!”).
Recent activity in the South China Sea especially sparked discussion. On September 3, President Xi Jinping announced his plan to reduce the size of the PLA, the largest military in the world, by 300,000 troops. An official statement by the Ministry of Defense claimed intention to “join hands with the rest of the world” for peace, development, and prosperity, a poignant gesture on the 70th anniversary of the end of the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression.
Although Xi loudly proclaimed his support for international cooperation, his military actions in the South China Sea demonstrate an entirely different set of intentions. Barely a week after his grand announcement to scale back the PLA’s ground troops, the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted activity in the South China Sea. Although China announced an end to their land reclamation activities in June, they are now constructing a third airstrip on the Fiery Cross Reef with the capability to deploy fighter jets. This renewed, particularly militaristic activity sparks worry for claimants Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam. China’s actions in the region have the potential to threaten stability without saying a word: the natural reaction for other countries will be to increase their own military presence, construct more sophisticated weaponry, or call for the support of allies—including the United States. Although Xi’s visit in late September yielded progress for environmental and cybersecurity issues, the territorial disputes in the South China Sea remain untouched.
It is important to remember that China is simply trying to secure uncertain territory through realist means, reacting to what it sees as global snubs. Each participant in the dispute claims the islands based off of cultural and historical aspects, adding an even more complicated level in a region where nationalist fervor runs high. Furthermore, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam all enjoy full member status in ASEAN, an alliance that interacts with China but still holds them at arm’s length. The Trans-Pacific Partnership has progressed without extending an invitation to China, inciting suspicions of collusion and containment from Beijing.
Thomson and Gold were quick to point out the flaw in my concerns: “rhetoric and action are geared towards two different groups.” Although China has ceremoniously advocated for peace on the world stage, the South China Sea—grinningly referred to as the ASEAN Sea—is still covered with missiles and will most likely continue in this fashion. They also pointed out that China was not the first country to facilitate the dispute: in 2008 and 2009, Vietnam and the Philippines appealed to expand their maritime territories for economic benefit. China was merely reacting to the appeal, joining other countries in citing historical rights to the area in question.
Although Xi and Obama were unable to resolve escalating tensions in the South China Sea, the two were able to settle upon rules of conduct for military personnel. After the 1996 missile crisis in Taiwan, the US and China have agreed upon the need for standardized procedure, in case the two armies come across one another in international territory. Earlier drafts only outlined protocol for naval forces, and Xi’s recent visit to the US was able to expand the deal to include aircraft. However, no such agreement exists for the disputing countries in the South China Sea. Thomson warned that, “a single trigger-happy guy can cost thousands of lives.” Although the US and China have taken measures to protect themselves from impulsive military behavior, the South China Sea is still a region under high pressure with overwhelming competing interests. While the PLA has reduced its number of ground troops, money and attention will most likely go towards more sophisticated weaponry, including aircraft and naval vessels for the country’s multiple territorial disputes. Thomson and Gold both estimate that the region will experience conflict within the next five years.
Kiana Mendoza is a Fellowship Leader for Project Pengyou, an initiative dedicated to opening discussion and fostering relationships between the US and China. If you are interested in joining, email kmendoza15@cmc.edu and follow Project Pengyou: The Claremont Colleges on Facebook.
