During the past several weeks, Russia’s increased military action in Syria has raised important questions for the array of international interests in the region. In light of Russia’s longstanding support of the Assad regime, allegations that Russian airstrikes have targeted U.S.-backed rebel groups, and President Putin’s recent annexation of Crimea, the UN, NATO, and other western allies have particular reason for concern. However, although Russia’s increased presence in Syria complicates the already convoluted situation on the ground for the international community, the country’s aggression will likely prove to be an enduring headache for its own interests in region.

I’m convinced that Russia’s offensive measures in Syria will have adverse consequences for the country. In the modern era, it has become abundantly clear that foreign military intervention in the Middle East is incredibly complicated, and often has far-reaching consequences long after troops return home. An published by Michael Crowley in Politico titled “Obama to Putin: Good luck with that” echoes the Obama Administration’s perspective on the matter. In a bloody war as tumultuous as the Syrian conflict and no clear end (or victor) in sight, it is much more likely that the long-term consequences of Russia’s actions will far outweigh any potential benefit. Specifically, I see two major ways the offensive initiative is likely to backfire.

Large groups of Russian citizens have already sworn allegiance to ISIS, and although the terrorist organization has primarily targeted the United States and other western nations in its attacks, Russia’s increased presence in Syria will almost certainly cause the extremist group to shift its sights on Putin. With the United States sitting largely on the sidelines in what many senior Obama officials view as an “unwinnable fight”, Russia is essentially inviting extremist backlash. Indeed, by failing to adequately weigh ISIS’s ability to raise retaliatory havoc within his own borders, Putin is inadvertently putting a long-term, irrevocable bullseye on Moscow.

In addition to the potential Russian intervention has to breed extremist animosity, Putin has also place himself in a dubious position by affirming his commitment to the Assad regime. The international community has overwhelmingly condemned President Assad for the use of chemical weapons against his own people, and even in the event of a “victory” (whatever form that might take) in his favor, the regime’s long-term stability, diplomatic bargaining power, and international respect have all plummeted. Thus, by tying its wagon to such an internationally controversial figure, especially in combination with the recent annexation of Crimea, Russia continues to isolate itself from Europe and the United States.
Ultimately, with so many variables at play, the potential for extremist backlash, and the consequences of affirming its support for the Assad regime, Russia’s increased military actions are far more likely to cause more harm than good for its own interests.

Eric Millman